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EMBED Equation.3 X 0̐ 0  EMBED Equation.3 | X 0̐ i  EMBED Equation.3 ( EMBED Equation.3 )| XՔ 0@  EMBED Equation.3 <\ X՘ 0̐ i 0̐  \ ( EMBED Equation.3 ). tD iXt 0̐ X 85%| XՔ ٳ|\ a( EMBED Equation.3 )D ,0XՔ @ lt  \. t ǔ 0̐ ٳ|a X aD ,0` xD 0 L8t. tLjŔ 0̐ X 85%| ,0XՔ ٳt lt  ǔ | t .  EMBED Equation.3 X 0̐ X 85%| ,0\ X 0̐ iX 0ȵD . 0̐ i X 85% ̹D ,0XՔ @ \Qt  \. t 0̐ i ǩD XՌ . 0̐ i X 85% @ D ,0XՔ \ 0̐ iX \Qt  . 0@ x 0̐ i 0̐  X0 L8t. 0|,  EMBED Equation.3 X 0̐ X 85%| ,0` 0̐ iX \ Q@ X 85%| ,0XՔ t. tD iXt \ 0X |\ m l@ 0̐t \<\ ,0XՔ t. t\   0X 0aD \ at \ t t| \ 0X ij@Ɣ t 0̰ Р  LD . , 0̐ \<\ ,0h<\h \ Ǵ D  t tȬ\䲔 t. E̅HŐX  Xij@Ɣ x И t. III. 0i TȲ Ʉ)` 0X i TȲ (1) t$ 0i <\ III-1> i 0̉ \ $8pȬ l(8) iՉ  pȬ@ Q`8mCover PricingXij Ĭ} x13%YesYesŒ֙0lijX |X25%YesYes  0 ¥DŽ`lijX |X40%YesYes00  0 X 7%NoNo0x} 0̐ 18%YesNo֌  ȼŌ DD Ɉ29%YesNo̸: Zarkada-Fraser, A. and M. Skitmore,  Decisions with moral content: collusion, Construction Management and Economics, 18, 2000 : Cover Pricing@ x 0̐| 0¤0 X Xij<\ @ 0| ,0XՔ | йh.  Q@ i 0| iD $Xՠ䲔  Maybe QD Xh. pȬ@ t m iՉ  t ǔ X ŀ| йh. II 0̐t iX JŔ x XֽD X. 췘,   0D X i@ HXՌ X . 0̐t X 1ij lX iXՔ t ǔ 0ij \ U1(uncertainty)D D  . ҈ 0̐X 0̽t \Ո X J Ĭ L iX 1@ D. 0̐@ Ĭ 0D X x 0̉ PŌ tut  JŔ䲔 xD XՌ 0 L8t. i@  i(explicit collusion) 5 i(implicit collusion)<\ l.  i@ 0̐X 1\ iX 0X 0̐|  ɅX 0| pXՔ t.  i@ X m Ǖ(per se illegal) . t 5 i@ 0̐X x XǬPX t 5 tt 0X 0̐ pXՔ D й\. 5 i@ 0̐X XǬ PX t t踴0 L8 0̐t  t <\ ٳX`  ǔ XǬX (focal point)t Ǵ| \. 0 t\ \ ଌ x, Œ֙0 D  . <\ III-1>@ 8X t$ Ȭ| <\ \ $8pȬ \ 0i \ ĬȬX xD . 40%X Q i 0|  ¥DŽ` X i Xՠ  . Œ֙0)X 0i 81 tij 25%X Q x QD t . t\ XX $8pȬ Qt pD ` 1t l䲔 D HXt 0̐X i81@ <\ III-1> М X t t. 0i TȲ ilpX ɍt 0t |nj X J Ĭ  ilp ɍ  ǔ t ǔ t`X Folk TheoremD Ʃt $`  . Friedman(1971)X Folk Theorem@ 4\(infinitely repeated game) 8t ̈́\ xǴD ɔ , |nj1X lu @ uD XՔ t XՀ Dȴl(subgame perfect Nash equilibrium)<\  䲔 D . 0̐X %t  ǔ @ Ő  t\(deviate) <\ 䴴 0  8 |nj1 X l<\ XՔ ȵ(trigger strategy)D X0 L8t. , i@ t lȵD ƈ \䲔  L8  t. ilij th<\h 0ǔ |njx tuX | 8,  <ǘ t ilijX 4\ x\ t ɹX0 L8 ilij  t. Folk Theorem@ ix Dp (noncooperative equilibrium)<\  LD . \ո, tА \ ȵt ٳX0 t 0̐t 0̐X p 0̉| !`  Ǵ| \. Stigler(1964) \0ijX 0̰  ttTt tА| XՔ p ijD ȴ ilij| ଈ XՔ !tt LD X . 2) 0ttTX 0ttTt 1<\ 0 t L @ 4 | tհt| \. , ttT@ ttTX <\ XՔ t$D 0XՔ X(mechanism)| t| \. ttTX t t$X 0| X D | ttT@ }Œ 40 L8t. X, ttT@ ttTX iXǬmD ɉXՔ D X Ǵ| \. 0it T ǔ i D )¤Д (price fixing) Ĭ}D 8T` ” 0 L8 iiXǔ 0 ɉx (self-enforcing) 1D 8| \. ^ Folk Theorem@ 0t 4\<\ t L it  LD . 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EMBED Equation.3  08 Š] \. t ǔ 08 h 0| t Xt8 0̐t t$((mark-up)D  ,0X0 L8t. 0̐ it t踴 ttTt Ʌ\ 0̐ǔ  \ 0| ,0` t. 0|, i X 0(t(expected difference)  EMBED Equation.3 t . t DƄX ij(spread)| дȔ \ |  EMBED Equation.3 \ XXՐ.  EMBED Equation.3  D Ĭ (x ŐX D<\  Xt. 0̐X Dt  Lt $ 0ttTX t$(iD %) (: %) 0̐ 251020k1.137891.361316191.4102025271.7132733362.0 173340452.520404954̸: John McMillan,  Dango: Japan s Price-Fixing Conspiracies, Economics and Politics, November 1991 <\ III-2> 0ttTX t$(i X (t)t i (XՔ D(D . t$@  EMBED Equation.3 t h 0| . tǔ 0̐ ιD] 0̽t T 0t X0 L8t. \  EMBED Equation.3  ], , 0̐X DƩ( t] i<\ x\ @ \. t ǔ  0XֽX  EMBED Equation.3  t] DX (x 0̐ 0 8X ȀX  , @  | ` 1t 0 L8t. t, iՅ0Ŕ 0̐X D Ĭt   it 1. <\ III-2> i<\ x\ t 0̐  DX  ƥD 0 L8 t$\ȸȹ thD . |X t$ 0Ŕ 10 ͭ. 1982D |t$1@ D X ͭ 0̐| 20\ UX<ǘ X U% tX ¨  . t$ǰD \  x x  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  첬 !t X. ΘX Ontario \ 0 ,0 0| \ l 0tt  EMBED Equation.3  \͌ 1.1, \ 5.0,  1.4| p 1.3 1.7tX  X ǔ <\ Ь.  EMBED Equation.3  1.3t  EMBED Equation.3 t 10| ȅ0XX \ଅ0@ \ȅ0X (t(spread)| ^ $\ D X lXt 1/5t .  EMBED Equation.3  1.7| Ŕ \(\ȅ0X spread 1/3t . McMillan@ 1/5~1/3 X 0spread Ȕm t$0t <\ ɉt L ! t| X . 0| x 0tǤ” 10 0 8X  EMBED Equation.3 t 1.3~1.7 X D ɔ t. McMillan@ |X t$0 i<\ x\ t Ĭ}aX 16~33% 첈X <\ X . McMillan@  i<\ x\ М X t <\ X . <\ III-2>X ”XΔ iXX t$Dt  ¥XֽX@ ٳ|X䲔 X Ĭ t. 췘, ilijX t$0@ DD \ (innovation)X xD  X0 L8 ǴX D(x D XՌ . |X l@ | t$ĬX 1t mtǘ ų| DX LD . (regression analysis)D tǩ\ 0̉Є 1) 0  0 0@ 0ttTX Єtǘ 0ttTX tȬ\ x\ D  . 0̐t 0<x ij| ɔ \0ijX 0̐@ 0tu䲔 01 DD P . 0|, Ȑ ǥ 0̐X 0< ij `] \0ijX 4\ Ĭ}aD 0`  . \ո, \0ij \ t`@ 0̰ ƥD `  ǔ x\ 08, 0̐X Dm1 ŀ, 0̐X  \ ij D . 0̐ Š] 0̽@  0 0a@ XՌ . t, 0̐ Dm1, , Dt lpx (t tȬXՔ (x 0̐ǔ \ x 0ȵD lXՌ . ^ Ȉt \0ijXX 0̰ 0̐X  \ ij lЌ ƥD . 췘, 0̐X  \ ij  t DȲ t  0 0| TXՔ 1D Ȳ . |<\ 0̐X 0<ij ܭ D@X t$0 JD] tɔ D . ȹɹ<\ Dm1D \ 0t`@ lpx DP| 0̐ D \ ǥ \ 0̐| XX @ 0| ,0XՔ D . t L8 lpx DP ǔ 0̐| XՔ E@ 0̽D  ȐX 0 Ĭ}aD xXȔ | 8,  . t\ t` )(Ɍt$Ŵt Dt lpx DP ňǔ <\  t 0D XՔ EX |p\  D t. , x )(Ɍt$Ŵ pX 䲔 0 լ(premium)D XՔ ij 0̽D X ȐX ưD Ȕ | 8   . (2) 0i Ʉ)` 0 III 4 )`D t0\ \. , 0` )@ tǩX hij lX 0 ƥD Ȕ  xD $X JŔ䲔  8D Ȳ . Ƭ| D X 0`D ĬX <ǘ t pD X \䲔 DD  . X, ¬tXD tǩ\ 0@  0̸̐| Jt X Jij x t$X l0| `  䲔 D Ȳ . 췘, ٳ 0X 0\  Y @ 0x  X .  McMillan(1991)X Y @ 0̐t ɽ(risk neutral)t| D X . 0̐t 0<(risk averse)t| x D ` t$X l0 |Ɍ t. K, 0@ 0̉| X0 X <\  )t. 췘, 0iՄ t 0D ȩX0 t Xȹl(benchmark)\ tǩ Dž0̸̐ tȬX| \. 0t iX t踴 ٳ 0X ȩ@ X| \. ȹɹ<\ 0DŽ0@ 0iD  Ux`  ǔ x 0tǘ 0i D tմɔ \.  0ttTьt DX DP X  |  0X0\ X X D |a ̹|D |`<\ X ,0XՔ ٳ 0D \ i@ X. \, ٳ 0@ \ 0̸̐X D DՔ\ \䲔 D Ȳ . t 0i Ʉ0@ 0<\ \0ijXX 0̉Є tǩ t. Ƭ|X ։ 0ijx ȩ¬ijX 0 0X\ p 0̰ X . t\ t Ʉ0D ȩX X ǔ 0̉Є| Ŕ䲔 @ `̀0 X. \0ij <\ ‰t 0 D tǩ\ Yx 0̉Єt XՌ t. t| t 0̐  (  Ĭ<\  pt0ѠtǤ(DB)T | ` t. <88> $ (t8(@i(t l(1998),  0 i \ l , \mt$l t8(2000),  \ 0 ij)H \ l , \mt$l tǬǰ(1997),  i , \ml tǬǰ(Ѽ](1992),  t$0X 0̉ٳ \ l , ml M1 x 3x(1989),  Ƭ|X t$lp , ml Bajari, Patrick (2000)  Comparing Competition and Collusion in Sealed Bid Procurement Auctions: A Numerical Approach, mimeo. Stanford University de Neufville, R., Hani, E., and Lesage, Y. (1977), Bidding Models: Effects of Bidders Risk Aversion, Journal of Construction Division, March: 57-70 Feinstein, J., Block, M., and Nold, F. (1985), Asymmetric Information and Collusive Behavior in Auction Markets, American Economic Review, Vol. 75, No. 3: 441-460 Friedman, Lawrence (1956) A competitive-bidding strategy, Operation Research, Vol. 4, No. 4: 104-12 Hausman, Jerry and Ruud, Paul (1987). Specifying and testing econometric models for rank-ordered data, Journal of Econometrics, 34: 83-104 Howard, Jeffrey and Kaserman, David (1989) Proof of damages in construction industry bid-rigging cases, Antitrust Bulletin: 359-393 LaCasse, Chantale (1995). Bid rigging and the threat of government prosecution, RAND Journal of Economics, 26 (3): 398-417. McAfee, R. Preston and McMillan, John (1987). Auctions and bidding, Journal of Economic Literature, 25 (2): 699-738. McAfee, R. Preston and McMillan, John (1992). Bidding rings, American Economic Review, 82 (3): 579-99. McFadden, Daniel (1973). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior, In Zarembka, P. (ed.) Frontiers in Econometrics. New York: Academic Press: 105-42. McMillan, John (1991). Dango: Japans price-fixing conspiracies, Economics and Politics, 3 (3): 201-18. Milgrom, Paul (1989), Auctions and Bidding: A Primer, Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 3, No. 3: 3-22 Milgrom, Paul and Weber, Robert (1982) A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding, Econometrica, 50: 1089-1122 Porter, Robert and Zona, J. Douglas (1993). Detection of bid rigging in procurement auctions, Journal of Political Economy, 101 (3): 518-38. Porter, Robert and Zona, J. Douglas (1997). Ohio School Milk Markets: An Analysis of Bidding. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 6037, National Bureau of Economic Research. Riley, John and Samuelson, William (1981) Optimal Auctions, American Economic Review, 71: 381-92 Runeson, Goran and Skitmore, Martin (1999) Tendering theory revisited, Construction Management and Economics, 17: 285-296 Vickrey, William (1961) Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders, Journal of Finance, 16: 8-37 Wilson, Robert (1992). Strategic analysis of auctions, In Aumann, Robert J. and Hart, Sergiu (eds.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications. Vol. 1. Amsterdam: North Holland: 227-79. Zarkada-Fraser, Anna and Skitmore, Martin (2000) Decisions with moral content: collusion, Construction Management and Economics, 18: 101-111 Introduction to Auction Theories and Empirical Methods for Analyzing Bidding Behaviors Jinkeun Yu( HYPERLINK mailto:jyu@cerik.re.kr jyu@cerik.re.kr) We introduce auction theories from the perspective of a procurement auction for a construction contract. We compare bidders strategies under different auction mechanisms. In a first-price sealed-bid auction, bidders inflate their bids above their true costs which include normal returns on their investments. Under a Dutch auction, an auctioneer calls initial high price and then lowers the price until all but one bidder quit. A second-price sealed-bid auction (Vickrey auction) mechanism award a contract to the lowest bidder, but pays him a price equal to the second-lowest bid. Though the Vickrey auction induces bidders truthful bidding, it is rarely used in real world. Under benchmark assumptions, three auction schemes lead to the same outcomes on average. Among auction mechanisms, first-price sealed-bid auctions are the most widely used in developed countries to award construction contracts. We derive an optimal bidding function under basic assumptions and review how bidders behaviors change when we relax basic assumptions. A bidders optimal bid depends on his cost and the probability of winning the contact, which is affected by the distribution of costs of other firms and the number of competitors. When bidders are risk-averse, contract prices are more likely to be lower as they tend to bid aggressively. In general, the degree of a contractors risk averseness depends on a contract size and his business performance. When bidders are asymmetric, more efficient contractors tend to submit higher bids because they know they are facing high cost competitors. Favoring high cost firms will increase bidding competition and lower expected price paid by a procurement authority. In the last part of chapter II, we analyze a mechanism which award a contract to the bidder whose bid is less than, but is the closest to, the mean of valid bids. To be valid, a bid should be higher than the level set by a procurement authority. We show that there exists a symmetric Nash equilibrium. In equilibrium all the bidders submit the same bid that are equal to the lowest price set by the procurement authority. In chapter III, we introduce collusive bidding mechanisms and review various empirical methods developed to analyze collusive bidding behaviors in procurement auctions. The ratio approach looks at the relationship between the winning bids and the engineers estimates separately for the rigged and for the unrigged jobs. The advantage of this method is its simplicity. But the ratio approach ignores many relevant factors affecting bid price level. Using the simulation method based on a competitive bidding model, we can estimate the size of excess profits due to collusion. McMillan(1991)s model, however, is based on the assumption that bidders are risk-neutral. When we adopt a more realistic assumption that bidders are risk-averse, the size of excess profits will be different. The regression analyses are widely used in anti-trust trials in the U.S.A. To analyze the difference between competitive and collusive bidding behaviors, this method requires benchmark data on unrigged jobs. Without such data, we cannot apply this method. Porter and Zona (1993) analyzed the ranking of bids to detect bid-rigging in auctions for state highway construction contracts. If bidding is competitive, we expect that the ordering of bids reflects observable cost differences. In contrast, the rank distribution of collusive bids is not expected to be correlated with the observable cost measures. However this rank-based analysis is not applicable when all the cartel bidders scale their competitive bids up by the same percentage.  ։ ȩ¬0 0tt  tX\ \\ 0\ <\ ¬X, ܭ 0| it 85-95 tx | 0̐\ X .  \ 8@ Friedman(1956) 8p. CM|X 0t`@ 0̐X Ĭx(systematic) ȵT| 0X . 0| t$” TXT|ij 0̐X 0̉Д X JŔ. CM|X 0t`@ Runeson and Skitmore(1999) 8p.  mX 0̐ǩD lD\ 0̐ p iլx (the lowest reasonable bid)| \ 0̐| 0̐\ X . m XXt t$Ĭ}@ Uֽ Ē10D qXՔ 0̐ Ȝ\ X \ 0| 0<\ X 0̐| \( 23 U.S.C. 122[b]).  |<\ auctiontǀ ƴŔ buyer s auction seller s auctionD \. Ƭ| 乔 seller s auctionD йXp 0tǀ \ buyer s auction (procurement auction)D XX .  0 ȵ@ Ť ȵD XՔ Ĭt m Ō Ǭ\ | 8 Ȕ ȵD й\.  t Ȕ 0̐Ō 4tX. t\ t t Dв |ij 0̐Ō t  0<x Őǔ 0ut 0x ij 8X JŔ. ij 8X JD 0X uD UXՌ U`  0 L8t. ij 8` 0u@ ٳ|XՌ 0tǘ U1t   McAfee and McMillan (1987)@ 乐X  0h| ijX . 0 l乐X <\ XX 0h| ij\.  0̐t \ t\ 0ȵD XՔ @ tȬX JŔ.  DƬŐ@ DƬŐX DƄӔ \ t. 췘 X thij lX DƄ\0 ij ŐX D@ ٳ|`  .  t@  X DƄ D xXଔ ٳ|X䲔 D X .  0 Ȑǔ ɽx <\ \.  t D@ (affiliated) \\.  ٳ ij 1972~77, 1981~83 0 .  0 ȵ(pure strategy) m\X . 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